Subject: [RADIR] (no subject)

From: Thomas Narten <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 May 2007 09:05:57 -0400

FYI, as mentioned briefly on the call yesterday, here is what Geoff is
now saying about IPv4 exhaustion (http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/)

> Projected IANA Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: 17-Dec-2009
> 
> Projected RIR Unallocated Address Pool Exhaustion: 27-Jul-2010
> 
>     Note: 8 May 2007
> 
>     Regular visitors to this page would see that the projected date of
>     IANA unallocated pool exhaustion has moved closer by some months,
>     as of the 8th May. The reason for this change of the projection is
>     the use of a different mathematical predictive model, as of this
>     date. Previous reports used a best fit of an exponential model to
>     the most recent 1000 days of data in order to generate the
>     predictive model. As indicated in Figure 22 of this report, this
>     exponential model now deviates significantly from the data. The
>     predictive model is now based on a quadratic equation, as this
>     offers a closer fit to the underlying data set.

Note that this is a significant change in dates. I believe it shaves
almost 2 years off the previous 5 year projection for RIR depletion.

Thomas

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